A Simple Model for Estimating Future Channel Migration from Historical Aerial Photographs
Channel migration can create potential hazards to infrastructure. To minimize the hazard and reduce the need to impact channel form and function through channel hardening, hazard zones are delineated. In areas where infrastructure exists within areas of potential channel migration it is valuable to be able to predict channel migration to develop appropriate management plans. Predicting channel migration is difficult, however, because it is a non-linear process that is a function of the antecedent channel planform and the cumulative interaction of adjacent meanders. This is further complicated by the fact that meanders both migrate and adjust their form over time. To address the complexity a simple process was developed to translate historical meander migration into a series of linear functions that allow prediction of future channel planform. A case study from Sheridan
Creek, Mississauga, Ontario is used to illustrate the technique and its potential applications.
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