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Modeling Water Demand Considering Impact of Climate Change – a Toronto Case Study

Waiel A. Sadiq and Bryan Karney (2005)
Earth Tech Canada Inc.; University of Toronto
DOI: https://doi.org/10.14796/JWMM.R223-06
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Abstract

Municipal water demand modeling is a complex process that involves human response to climatic and non-climatic conditions. Forecasting of water demand is indispensable for the daily operation of existing water supply systems and the planning of future systems. The prospect of global climate change added a new dimension to the existing uncertainty associated with the forecasting of municipal demand for water. In this chapter an analysis of Toronto’s daily water demand is carried out and a methodology for the forecasting of this demand is provided. A model for the prediction of the daily water demand of the city of Toronto is developed. The model provides a tool to optimize the daily operation of the water supply system with the goal of minimizing energy cost and improving water quality. A second model for the long-term forecasting of Toronto’s water demand is also presented. The long-term demand model is used to evaluate the impact of climate change on Toronto’s future water demand.

The study has shown that a 1°C increase in summer maximum daily temperature would result in a 2% increase in average summer demand and 1.8% increase in peak day demand. Toronto’s peak day demand of year 2000 would increase by 23% as a result of a 15% increase in population coupled with having a summer in which the maximum daily temperature increase by 5°C and the rainfall decrease by 10%. Planners and engineers need to consider climate change scenarios in the planning strategy of future water supply systems and delivering projects.

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PAPER INFO

Identification

CHI ref #: R223-06 889
Volume: 13
DOI: https://doi.org/10.14796/JWMM.R223-06
Cite as: CHI JWMM 2005;R223-06

Publication History

Received: N/A
Accepted: N/A
Published: February 15, 2005

Status

# reviewers: 2
Version: Final published

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© 2005 CHI. Some rights reserved.

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Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

The Journal of Water Management Modeling is an open-access (OA) publication. Open access means that articles and papers are available without barriers to all who could benefit from them. Practically speaking, all published works will be available to a worldwide audience, free, immediately on publication. As such, JWMM can be considered a Diamond, Gratis OA journal.

All papers published in the JWMM are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY).

JWMM content can be downloaded, printed, copied, distributed, and linked-to, when providing full attribution to both the author/s and JWMM.


AUTHORS

Waiel A. Sadiq

Earth Tech Canada Inc., Marham, ON, Canada
ORCiD:

Bryan Karney

University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
ORCiD:


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